AFL Tips - North Melbourne v Carlton

The market can’t call the annual North v Carlton Good Friday clash at Marvel Stadium but there remains one trend that simply has to be followed.

Best Bet

North Melbourne

Second Half Winner

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$1.98

Why go against the best betting trend in footy?

Neither of these teams can be fully trusted, but based on over a year of data there is one thing we can trust: Carlton will not run out a game. Last week’s second half capitulation against Melbourne was the most embarrassing instalment yet, but this is a pattern that has been building for a long time. Since the start of 2025, the Blues own a 7-19 second half record, the second worst in the competition. This year alone they have lost the second half by a combined 153 points across just three games.

There are plenty of theories about why Carlton fade so badly, but the simplest explanation is that this is a list built to win contested football five years ago. It is full of hard-nosed inside players who simply are not built to run for four quarters. The legs go and the scoreboard follows.

North are a different proposition now. There are still plenty of issues with their ball movement and defence, but they run out games reasonably well. They sit at 1-1-1 in 2026 with a second half percentage of 98, which is not a number that screams dominance but at least suggests they stay in the contest when it matters.

This game is a lottery, but the strongest angle is Carlton fading again in the second half.

Same Game Multi

Carlton First Half Winner, H.Sheezel 30+ Disposals, C.McKercher 25+ Disposals, B.Ainsworth Anytime Goal

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$4.60

Carlton remain a very good first half team before the stitch sets in. They have won the opening half in all three games this season and were a top-six first half team in 2025. The Blues should do enough to lead at the main break.

North are one of the highest disposal teams in the competitio. Harry Sheezel has had 30 or more disposals in seven straight games and rarely attracts defensive attention given his ordinary ball use. Colby McKercher returned to half-back last week and promptly racked up 35 touches.

Ben Ainsworth has kicked a goal in 11 of his last 12 games against North Melbourne and looks well placed to add another here.

Value Bet

Carlton First Half / North Melbourne Second Half

Half Time Full Time

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$8.50

The best value bet in footy right now. It has landed in two of three games this season and was very close in the Carlton v Richmond clash. Since the start of 2025 it has hit in eight games and shows no sign of stopping. As long as Carlton keep fading out of matches, we will keep backing this one.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.