AFL Tips - North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

North Melbourne’s impressive start to 2026 faces its biggest test yet at Barossa Park on Saturday afternoon when the back-to-back premiers arrive for Gather Round.

Best Bet

Brisbane -34.5

Line

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$1.90

North’s 3-1 record deserves some context before backing them against a team like this.

The Roos have beaten Port Adelaide, Essendon and Carlton, three sides that could make up the bottom five of the competition. They are genuinely improved, but defence remains a concern. Conceding 78 points per game against that quality of opposition is not confidence-inspiring, and they now face a Brisbane side that has scored 119 and 113 in their last two games.

The ruck battle looms as decisive. Tristan Xerri is suspended and his replacement Callum Coleman-Jones is a serious step down, while Brisbane regain both Hugh McCluggage and Harris Andrews. The Lions’ talent advantage across the park is significant.

The market is expecting a high-scoring game with a total of 190. If this becomes a shootout, Brisbane have the firepower to pile on the pain. Back the Lions to cover a big number.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane -34.5, D.Zorko 25+ Disposals, W.Ashcroft 25+ Disposals, C.Daniel 20+ Disposals, L.McCarthy Anytime Goal

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TBC

Both teams play high disposal football, particularly out of defence. Dayne Zorko has had 25 or more disposals in seven straight and Will Ashcroft has had 30 or more in three of his last four. Caleb Daniel has gone 20 or more in each of his four games this season.

Lincoln McCarthy has kicked three goals across his last two games and is an awkward match-up for any backline.

Value Bet

S.Draper 2+ Goals

Player Goals

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$4.00

Sam Draper is a big concern for North without Xerri. Callum Coleman-Jones was very ordinary against Carlton last week and Draper should run him off his feet, and could charge forward for a couple of snags.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.