AFL Tips - Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

The Dogs will need to be wary of the Dees following the sacking of Simon Goodwin if they are to keep their finals push on track.

Best Bet

Over 178.5

Total Points

Bet Now

$1.90

It’s always tough to predict how a team will respond to a coach sacking, so taking the over looks the best bet here.

The last seven games between these teams have gone over the total, with an average of 168 points. Five of those matches have been at the typically lower-scoring MCG, but the only meeting at Marvel since 2022 produced a total of 210.

The Dogs’ offence is in a league of its own. They are averaging 113 points per game this season, a full goal more than their nearest rival. That number jumps to 131 points against bottom-nine teams.

While the Dees have been reasonably competitive in 2025, their usually stingy defence has fallen away badly, conceding an average of 89 points per game — ranked equal 14th. It’s hard to see them keeping the Dogs from piling on a score.

The Dogs’ defence remains their achilles heel, and they have the worst points against average of any of the top nine finals contenders.

Interim coaches often release their teams to play a more attacking, free-flowing game, and if Troy Chaplin follows that blueprint, this could be a monster total.

Same Game Multi

Over 178.5 Points, A.Naughton 3+ Goals, B.Fritsch Anytime Goal M.Kennedy 20+ Disposals

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$5.00

Naughton has kicked 24 goals in his last five games.

Bailey Fritsch has kicked 12 in his last four.

Matt Kennedy has had 20+ in eight of his last ten.

Value Bet

A.Naughton

5+ Goals

Bet Now

$6.00

Getting $6.00 for something that has occurred in four of the last five games just has to be backed. Aside from a return of 2.1 against the Lions, Naughton has kicked 5+ in every other game in the last five weeks. The Dees are still missing Steven May and Jake Lever too.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.