AFL Tips – Melbourne v Western Bulldogs – Round 1 2022

The 2022 season kicks off under the MCG lights with a replay of last year’s Grand Final in front of what should be a huge crowd. Warm conditions are expected which should facilitate high scoring.

Best Bet

Melbourne -8.5 ($1.90)

The line has only moved two points in the Demons direction compared to the Grand Final and while the game should be closer this time, expect the red and blue to prevail again. 

Since Simon Goodwin took over in 2018 the Dees have an excellent record against the number when playing the Dogs, having covered six times from eight games. 

Both teams come into Round 1 largely free of injury to key personnel. The key advantage for Melbourne last year’s decider was in the ruck. With the Dogs relying once again on Stefan Martin and Tim English, that edge has not diminished. 

With warm conditions expected, the number looks primed to go over the total. MCG Round 1 games have gone over at a rate of 67% in the last decade.

Same Game Multi

Demons -8.5/Over 160.5/Clayton Oliver 25+ Disposals/Christian Salem 20+ Disposals/Christian Petracca Any Time Goalscorer ($4.75)

Oliver had no less than 33 in three games against the Dogs last year, Salem has gone over 20 in 12 of his last 13 games, and Petracca scored a goal in all three games against the Dogs last year, including two in the Grand Final. 

Value Bet

Max Gawn 2+ Goals ($5.00)

Big Maxy should spend more time forward than usual given how much success Luke Jackson had in the ruck in the Grand Final. While Gawn only kicked two or more in three games last year, he is just two games removed from bagging 5 against the Cats in the preliminary final.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.