AFL Tips - Melbourne v West Coast

Melbourne will seek to respond from last week’s embarrassing loss to the Saints when they take on the Eagles at Marvel on Saturday.

Best Bet

West Coast +41.5

Line

Bet Now

$1.90

This is a revolting betting game and a tough one to find any value in.

Melbourne are coming off one of the most humiliating chokes in recent memory, while West Coast are, well, West Coast.

History does offer some edge for the Eagles, as games with big lines between bad teams tend to favour the underdog. Since 2010, bottom-ten teams who are 40+ point favourites against another bottom-ten side have only covered the line 41% of the time. Late in the season (post-Round 16), that drops to just 30%. When there’s nothing left to play for, the gap between poor teams tends to narrow.

Despite having just one win, West Coast’s average losing margin is a relatively “good” 41.5 points (there are four teams with worse averages). They have only lost by more than 41 points once since Round 3 despite playing the Cats, Dockers, Hawks, Lions, Magpies, Suns and Crows in that time.

The Eagles are averaging 62 points per game this season, meaning Melbourne will likely need to score 100+ to cover here — something they’ve done only once in their last eight outings.

These sides met in Round 8, with Melbourne winning by 32 points. This line just looks a touch too big.

Same Game Multi

West Coast +41.5, B.Fritsch 2+ Goals, C.Salem 20+ Disposals

Bet Now

$4.50

Bailey Fritsch loves playing the Eagles, kicking 3+ in four of his last five against them.

Christian Salem has had 20+ in five straight.

Value Bet

West Coast

Head-to-Head

Bet Now

$8.00

There is zero value anywhere in this game but $8.00 is a nice price to find out whether last week completely broke Melbourne or not.

Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2025 AFL season.

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.