The Eagles were upset winners when these sides met in Round 11. Can the Dees avenge that defeat on Sunday at the MCG?
Best Bet
It’s yet another Dees game where the under is a highly appealing bet.
They got their forward line somewhat back on track against the Lions at the Gabba (bad kicking aside) but they have struggled to score at the MCG all year, only topping 85 once in the last eight games.
Defensively, they have been solid, meaning totals of 137, 140, 162, 153, 140 and 142 in their last six games at the MCG.
West Coast did manage 16 goals when these sides met in Round 11 but they have scored 68 or less in four of the five games since.
There is an injury cloud over Jake Waterman, and having lost him early in Round 11, the Dees have defensive linchpin Jake Lever back in the lineup.
Everything points to the under in this one.
Insights
🏟️ Melbourne at MCG: In the last 9 games at the MCG, Melbourne has had 8 totals go under, showing a strong defensive trend at this venue.
⭐ Melbourne as Favourites: In the last 9 games as favourites, Melbourne has had 7 totals go under, pointing to low-scoring matches when expected to win.
🔄 West Coast Eagles Off Loss: In the last 7 games off a loss, West Coast has had 6 totals go under, reflecting a focus on defense following a defeat.
Same Game Multi
Liam Duggan had 29 when these sides last met and ball handling defenders usually do well against the Dees.
Jack Viney has found some form (at long last) in the last two weeks with 25 and 26. Trent Rivers has been seeing midfield time or last and has had 20 or more in four straight.
Value Bet
Lower totals have been a fruitful bet in Dees games and this looks a sound play once again.
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