AFL Tips – Melbourne v Sydney – Round 12 2022

Sydney can build on their excellent record against Melbourne.

Best Bet

Sydney +23.5

Sydney look well equipped to keep this game close.

The Swans have covered seven of their last eight against the Demons, and while Melbourne is a much improved side in the last two years they still ran them to a nine point margin last year.

While the Swans will miss Lance Franklin, the absence of Steven May for Melbourne will also be severely felt, as was shown in the second half last week.

Melbourne tends to dominate teams when they smash them in clearances and contested footy. That shouldn’t happen this week against the Swans.

Sydney will take plenty of heart from their excellent record at the MCG, where they have won five of their last seven games by an average of 24 points.

The Swans are the best final quarter team in football, having won nine of their final terms, so they shouldn’t fade out late which is the typical scenario when the Dees cover a big line.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.

Same Game Multi

Swans +23.5, Under 153.5, Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals

The under is also a strong lean in this game. Nine of the last eleven games between these two sides have gone under the total. The Dees have gone under in seven of eleven games this year, Sydney has generally been a strong over team this year but as they say, styles make fights. The Swans concede disposals at the lowest rate in the league but I’ll back Clayton Oliver to have his usual impact no matter what.

Value Bet

Tom McDonald
Top Goal Scorer

This price seems to be inflated because of the thought that McDonald might play back in the absence of Steven May. However, with Adam Tomlinson coming in he should play forward and build on bags of 4 and 3 in his last two games before missing last week.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.