It should be another low scoring total when the Demons host the Saints on Sunday afternoon at the MCG.
Best Bet
All the numbers point towards the under being the bet in this one.
The last seven Demons games at the MCG have gone under. Eight of the last nine games with the Dees as favourites have gone under. The last four games between these two sides have gone under.
The scores the Dees have conceded this year at the MCG are as follows: 64, 38, 82, 42, 66 and 77.
It’s hard to see how the Saints, a team that are coming off totals of 53 and Hawthorn and 55 against Freo are going to be able to score enough in this one to get the total over.
As far as the Dees offence goes, it’s the same poor unit that have struggled to post scores for years. A new year, not much changes. The Saints are very solid defensively, apart from one slip up against the Dogs they have not conceded more than 82 in any other game.
The total here is low, but it’s not low enough.
Insights
🔽 Melbourne as Favourites Under Trend: As favourites, Melbourne’s games have predominantly stayed under, with 8 unders in their last 9 games.
🏟️ Low Overs at MCG for Melbourne: Games involving Melbourne at the MCG have mostly gone under, with the total not going over in their last 7 games at this venue.
🔻 Low Scoring Trend in Melbourne vs St Kilda Games: All of the last 4 matchups between Melbourne and St Kilda have gone under the total points line.
Same Game Multi
Suspect the Dees should be able to win this. Their record against the Saints is impressive and the loss to the Eagles looks to have been an aberration.
With disposals, it’s hard to have much confidence in any of the Dees mids. Viney is out of form, Oliver is having trouble shaking tags, while Petracca is needed forward as well.
The Saints do tend to concede big numbers to ball handling defenders so let’s throw in Trent Rivers and Christian Salem for 20, while for the Saints Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has been in great form with 26 or more in his last four.
Value Bet
Rivers should be suited here by the way the Saints tend to get numbers back behind the ball. In the rest of the group, Viney is out of form, Langdon is sink or swim on a wing, the ruckmen will contest with each other and May will likely have his hands full in the absence of Jake Lever.
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