AFL Tips - Melbourne v St Kilda

Melbourne host St Kilda at the MCG on Sunday afternoon in what shapes as one of the more difficult games of the round to assess.

Best Bet

Melbourne +10.5

Line

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$1.90

This shapes as one of the toughest betting games of the round, so taking the outsider with the start makes sense.

Double-digit favourites cover only 63% of the time in Round 1 and around 70% at the MCG, making the points attractive in the opening week when so much remains uncertain.

The underdog has also covered the line in 10 straight St Kilda matches, while Melbourne have historically started seasons well, covering in five straight Round 1 games as well as four of their last five matches at the MCG.

The Saints were underwhelming against Collingwood last week. They generated enough inside 50s but struggled to convert their opportunities. Melbourne, meanwhile, looked refreshed during preseason under new coach Steven King.

There is also encouraging news on the injury front for the Dees, with Jai Culley, Brody Mihocek and Bayley Fritsch all expected to play, so back them to remain close here.

Same Game Multi

Melbourne +10.5, Caleb Windsor 20+ Disposals, Kysaiah Pickett 2+ Goals, Mitch Owens Anytime Goal

Same Game Multi

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$5.00

Caleb Windsor looks set for a larger midfield role this season. He recorded the most centre bounce attendances for Melbourne in their preseason match against Richmond and had already collected 15 disposals before the game was called off in the third quarter.

Kysaiah Pickett was also in frightening form during preseason. He tends to lift when Melbourne start as underdogs and has kicked two or more goals in nine of his last 10 matches in that situation.

Mitch Owens rounds out the multi after kicking a goal in seven of his last eight games.

Value Bet

Caleb Windsor 25+ Disposals

Player Disposals

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$4.00

Collingwood’s midfielders had enormous success against St Kilda last week, with the Daicos brothers both collecting more than 35 disposals.

With Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver no longer at the club and Jack Viney sidelined, there are plenty of midfield disposals up for grabs at Melbourne.

Windsor already showed signs of stepping into a larger role during preseason and if that trend continues, the 25+ line looks very achievable.

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.