The ANZAC Day Eve clash sees a battle of two bottom four sides, both coming off wins, in Melbourne and Richmond.
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Best Bet
Melbourne were much better last weekend, but their overall form still doesn’t justify being four-goal favourites against any side.
Their win over Fremantle, their first of the season, came with a big lift in scoring. It was the first time they’ve scored more than 75 points in 2025, but they still rank as the second-lowest scoring team this year. They have also only covered the line once in six games.
Richmond, meanwhile, beat the Suns as 43.5-point underdogs. It was their second win this year when starting as 40-plus point outsiders, and they look like a side that could surprise a few more.
Both teams are among the three worst in clearance differential this season, so if Melbourne can’t take control there, there may not be much between these teams at either end, particularly if Steven May remains sidelined alongside Jake Lever for the Dees.
Melbourne have failed to cover in six of their last seven as favourites, and this line feels a bit long for the outsiders.
Same Game Multi
Seth Campbell has become a very solid forward for the Tigs, booting 2+ in five of his last six games, while Maurice Rioli has kicked a goal in four straight.
Jacob Hopper has collected 25+ touches in four straight games and never attracts much attention from the taggers.
Value Bet
Before last weekend, the talk around the winless Dees was that Simon Goodwin’s days were numbered and a full list rebuild was looming.
This looks like a good price to find out whether last week was an outlier, or if Melbourne’s premiership era is truly nearing its end.
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