Weather will be the only thing that saves North Melbourne from another humiliating defeat at the SCG this Saturday.
Best Bet
Under 154.5 Points ($1.90)
The prospect of wet weather leaves only one way to bet this game: the under.
Up to 100mm of rain is expected on Thursday, up to 45mm on Friday and 20mm on Saturday. Despite the meteorologists letting us down in Round 2’s unexpectedly dry Sydney v Geelong match-up, we’ll back them to get this forecast right.
Wet weather games go under at 71% over the last decade. It’s gone under in 12 of 16 wet games at the SCG and in all 10 played during the daytime.
Excluding their Round 2 win over the West Coast WAFL team, North are averaging just 53 points per game. The Swans are averaging 93 points per game.
Any significant rainfall will make these season averages incredibly difficult to match, leaving the unders a very strong bet.
Same Game Multi
Under 154.5 Points / L.Parker 20+ Disposals / L.Davies-Uniacke 20+ Disposals / J.Simpkin 25+ Disposals ($4.33)
Given the weather forecast, we’ll steer away from goal kicking markets and focus on disposals.
About the only meaningful stat North aren’t bottom four in is contested possessions, where they rank 13th, two spots ahead of Sydney through three rounds. If this becomes a slog, the inside mids will rack up plenty of touches.
Luke Parker has cleared 20 in 27 straight matches.
LDU had 27 touches in Round 1 before being concussed in Round 2. He’ll be straight back into the guts this week.
Jy Simpkin had a quiet game in Round 2 but had 31 disposals in Round 1 and 29 last week.
Value Bet
Will Hayward 3+ Goals ($3.60)
If you are looking for a goal kicker this week, look to Sydney’s smalls.
North’s defence have been deplorable against small forwards in the last couple of weeks, conceding four goals to Willie Rioli, five to Lincoln McCarthy and four to Zac Bailey.
Will Hayward is averaging two snags per game and looks the best value here. He also kicked three against North in Round 22 last year.
Expect that Errol Gulden and Ollie Florent will also threaten North’s struggling defence.
