Sunday footy kicks off with a dead rubber between the Dees and Roos at the MCG.
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Best Bet
Despite North missing two of their best players in Luke Davies-Uniacke and Nick Larkey, this line still looks far too big for the Dees.
These sides met earlier in the season and the Roos blew Melbourne off the park, running out 61-point winners at Marvel. That was without a huge contribution from LDU, who had 23 touches and four clearances, and Larkey, who kicked three.
The once-feared Melbourne midfield no longer strikes fear, sitting second-last for average clearances this season, while North rank seventh. The Dees have lost five straight and have failed to cover in four of their last five as a home favourite, and in five of six as a favourite off a loss.
The young Roos have responded well to defeat, covering in six straight. While they lose LDU and Larkey, they regain important experience in Luke Parker, Jack Darling and Charlie Comben.
Melbourne have no right to be nearly five-goal favourites against anyone at the moment. With the underdog covering in five of the last six between these teams and some forecast rain to keep scoring down, back North to keep it close.
Same Game Multi
Pickett will cause North’s slow small defenders all sorts of issues. He’s kicked 11 in his last four games. Zurhaar loves playing Melbourne, kicking 14 in his last four against them.
Colby McKercher has had 25+ in five straight since returning to half-back.
Value Bet
This just looks an absurd price for an upset given what occurred earlier in the year. North’s midfield bats deep and can cover LDU’s absence, while Larkey has been off his best for a lot of the year. The upset is certainly worth a bet.
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