Rain is set to play spoiler on Sunday’s MCG clash between Melbourne and GWS, but it does present some good betting opportunities.
Best Bet
The under already looked like a good bet for this matchup, but with up to 20mm of rain and strong winds forecast in Melbourne on Sunday, it now looks like a fantastic play.
The last five games between these teams at the MCG have gone under the total, with an average combined score of 148 points. Additionally, 14 of the Dees’ last 18 games at the home of footy have also gone under.
GWS were superb last week against Collingwood, particularly defensively. Despite narrowly losing the inside 50 count (54-55), they restricted the Pies to just 52 points from 22 scoring shots, seven fewer than they had themselves.
The Dees looked like an improved outfit in the pre-season, with Petracca and Oliver looking back to their best in pre-season, but their forward line still appears thin on goal-kicking options. Simon Goodwin has also flagged a more attacking style this year, but that, and the Giants’ ‘Orange tsunami’ ball movement, will be severely hampered by the weather.
Wet-weather games at the MCG hit the under at a 67% rate, and this one should fall well short of the mark.
Same Game Multi
Look to the midfield bulls in a wet weather game. Clayton Oliver had 28 touches in his last practice match, while Jack Viney looks great value to rack up 20.
Finn Callaghan led his team for clearances last week and has had 25+ in four of his last five games.
Value Bet
Two of the last four games between these teams have failed to reach 120 total points. If the full forecasted rain hits, this could be a very dour affair.
Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2025 AFL season.
