AFL Tips – Melbourne v Fremantle – Round 12 2024

Best Bet

Fremantle +11.5

Line

$1.90

Fremantle boast an excellent record against Melbourne and have a great chance of causing an upset, or at very least keeping this close.

While Alice Springs is a new venue for the Dockers, they have managed to beat the Dees at the MCG in each of the last two years, and the Dees were upset at this venue last year by the Giants.

The Dees are generally a poor play as favourites, having covered a dismal 15 of 37 when favoured by ten points or more in the last three years.

A big cause of that is the Dees lack of scoring power and with Freo having only conceded more than 76 points twice this season, it shapes as being a tight, low scoring contest.

With two goals head start the Dockers are a very worthy bet in this one.

Insights

📉 Persistent Low Scoring: Across multiple encounters, Melbourne vs Fremantle games have consistently stayed under the points total. Not a single game out of the last four has gone over, with this trend extending up to nine games where eight stayed under.

🛫 Fremantle’s Road Strength: In their recent away games, Fremantle has not only won five out of eight, but they’ve also covered the spread in seven of the last eight, highlighting their resilience on the road.

📊 Recent Form Analysis: Both teams have shown a tendency to stay under the total in their recent performances. Melbourne’s last 15 games have seen 12 unders, while Fremantle’s recent performance also mirrors this trend with seven unders in the last nine games.