AFL Tips - Melbourne v Essendon

Games involving the Demons at the MCG tend to be low scoring and that looks to be the way to bet Saturday night’s game against the Bombers.

Best Bet

Under 162.5

Total Match Points

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$1.90

The under is once again the play when the Dees play the Bombers on Saturday night at the MCG.

Twelve of the Demons last fifteen games at the home of football have gone under, and the trend towards the under is especially pronounced in night games – eight of the nine the Dees have played in have gone under in 2024.

The Dees managed to post 112 last week against the Eagles, but, well, that was the Eagles. Against competent football teams, their forward line looks far from threatening.

The trends are not towards the under when the Bombers play but as they say, styles make fights, and in the absence of Max Gawn expect the Dees to move the ball slowly and get plenty of numbers behind the ball.

With the number at a healthy 162.5 and the possibility of some rain, the under is the play.

Insights

🏟️ Melbourne at MCG: In the last 15 games at the MCG, Melbourne has achieved 12 total unders.

🔄 Melbourne Off Win: Following a win, Melbourne has seen 7 total unders in their last 9 games, showing a consistent trend towards low-scoring games after a victory.

🔢 Essendon vs Melbourne: In the last 9 games between Essendon and Melbourne, there have been 7 total unders, indicating low-scoring encounters.

Same Game Multi

Under 162.5, Martin 25+, Draper, May, McDonald 15+ Disposals

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$8.00

Tom McDonald has had 22 and 18 in his last two games and might see some time on the ball in Max Gawn’s absence. Gawn’s absence – and that of teammate Todd Goldstein – should also benefit Essendon ruckman Sam Draper.

Steven May has had 15 or more in five of his last six.

Nic Martin fits the profile of players who do well against the Dees.

Value Bet

Melbourne

Win

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$2.55

The loss of Gawn tempers confidence in this bet but the Dees are generally an excellent bet as outsiders, and meet an Essendon side that has struggled to put together good performances of late.

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