Looking at the odds for this match, there is no doubt that Melbourne is being priced on reputation more than present form.
Best Bet
The Dees recent form is damning for a side considered to be a top premiership chance. The form reads LLWWLWLWL. Where Melbourne do suck you in though is that when they look good, they look very good.
The problem is, fourth quarter fadeouts are becoming common. They have been smashed in the second half against Geelong, the Dogs and Collingwood in recent weeks.
Carlton’s form is questionable but they have a good record against Melbourne, especially as far as the betting markets are concerned.
The Blues have started underdogs in their last eight against the Dees but have covered in six of those games and won three of them.
Patrick Cripps avoiding suspension is critical because if you can nullify Melbourne’s dominance at clearance, the rest of their game isn’t in great shape, as was demonstrated in the second half against the Pies last week.
The Dees have also been a poor play as big favourites of late. They have failed to cover in their last four when favoured by three goals or more. They have lost two of those games.
With such a big line on offer, the Blues are an excellent bet.
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Same Game Multi
Opposition defenders typically rack up big numbers against Melbourne. Sam Docherty has cleared 25 in nine of his last ten and Adam Saad looks terrific value to hit that number given he is averaging 25 over the last three weeks.
Christian Salem was a horrific beat for 25+ last week for us but he is clearly getting more footy of late with Angus Brayshaw playing mid. Looks a good multi filler for 20+.
Jake Melksham has goals in his last three games.
Value Bet
Whether it works well or not is up for debate, but Jake Melksham is presently playing as the deepest forward in Melbourne’s structure. As a result, he looks good value to bag a couple of goals this week.
