AFL Tips - Melbourne v Brisbane

The in-form Dees host the Lions on Thursday night at the MCG where they will be looking for their fifth straight win.

Best Bet

Brisbane +15.5

Line

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The Dees are typically not a good play as big favourites and that looks to be the case once again against a team they have struggled against.

Since the start of 2021 Melbourne have been 12 or more point favourites on 43 occasions but have only covered the line in thirteen of those games.

Lines between 12 and 30 points are a real problem for favourite bettors as Melbourne have only covered in eight of 31 games when favoured between two and five goals.

Brisbane have won two of their last three games against the Dees with one of those being a final in 2022. In their only clash last year, at the MCG, the Dees won by a point and were lucky to do so.

While Brisbane only beat lowly North Melbourne last week, there were some positive signs. The final margin was ‘only’ 70 points but they kicked 16.16 and it could well have been more.

The Lions utterly dominated the midfield battle, winning the inside 50 count 71-31. They also won that metric against the Dockers and Pies, so clearly they are doing a lot right even though the ultimate results have been poor.

While the Dees defence is rightfully lauded as one of the best in the league, the Lions have had answers for it, posting scores of 92, 93 and 104 in their last three encounters.

This game should be much closer than the market suggests and Brisbane are an excellent bet with the big start.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane +15.5, McCluggage 25+ Disposals, Gawn, Neal-Bullen 15+ Disposals, Cameron 2+ Goals

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$7.50

Hugh McCluggage is seeing more midfield time than ever and has played very well at his last two with 29 and 35 disposals.

Charlie Cameron has caused the Dees a lot of problems, with multiple snags in his last three games against them.

For the Dees, Max Gawn and Alex Neal-Bullen should have no trouble hitting their numbers.

Value Bets

Brisbane

Head to Head

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$2.85

The underlying numbers suggest Brisbane have been going much better than their results indicate and they have an excellent recent record against the Dees. An upset would not surprise.

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