AFL Tips – Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs – Round 23 2022

It could win be and you’re in for the Western Bulldogs, who must beat the Hawks in Launceston on Sunday to remain a chance to feature in September action.

Best Bet

Western Bulldogs -16.5
Total Match Points

There’s just too much on the line for the Bulldogs not to back them here.

The Dogs have been a frustrating team for punters all year, but this is a reasonable spot for them, given they’ve won and covered the line in three of the last four against the Hawks.

Hawthorn have been ordinary in their adopted home, only covering in three of their last nine in Launceston.

Where the pendulum really swings for the visitors is in the midfield. The Dogs are the #1 team for clearance differential and scores from stoppage differential in 2022. The Hawks are dead last for these metrics.

Last time these two teams met, just eight weeks ago, the Dogs ran out 42-point winners off a comprehensive midfield performance which came without their #1 ruckman Tim English. They just owned the footy all game, with Macrae, Liberatore, Dale, Bontempelli, Dunkley and Treloar all having 25+ disposals.

English is in the line-up this week, while the Hawks will be missing a host of best 22 players from that game, including Mitch Lewis, Changkuoth Jiath, James Worpel, Ned Reeves and Jarman Impey.

The Dogs need this win and they should get it comfortably.

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Same Game Multi

Western Bulldogs -16.5, J.Macrae 30+ disposals, J.Dunkley & B.Dale 25+ disposals

Backing the Doggies’ mids for big games against a team that concedes the most disposals looks a brilliant angle here.

Jack Macrae has recorded 30+ in 10 of his last 14 and in five straight against the Hawks (excluding 2020).

Josh Dunkley has had 25+ disposals in three straight games while Bailey Dale has in nine of his last eleven games.


Value Bet

Western Bulldogs 40+
Margin

The Hawks were hammered by Richmond last week to the tune of 61 points and given their outs, a big margin is on the cards here.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.