This is a putrid match-up of two teams who have won a combined two of their last twelve games. A wet forecast only adds to the difficulty getting a bet on to sit through this one on Sunday arvo.
Best Bet
We’ll have two bites at the cherry here dependent on whether the predicted 5-10mm of rain arrives or not. Keep an eye on the forecast and radar before the game.
If the rain arrives:
Hawthorn are are a very average football team who aren’t entitled to be 30+ point favourites against any team, particularly in wet weather.
Backing big underdogs in wet weather has been money over the last decade with 29 of 42 covering the line including 8 of 11 at the MCG.
The Hawks are hardly a team that put big margins on teams either, only recording two 30+ point wins this year including one in Round 2 against a totally out of sorts Port Adelaide.
If the rain doesn’t arrive:
In dry or merely damp weather, this game screams overs.
The Hawks are the best overs team in the AFL in 2022 with 11 of 16 games clearing the total.
The Eagles, too, have found their scoring power in recent weeks as their long injury list has gradually shortened. They’ve kicked 90+ points in two of their last three.
This total is low given the forecast and is only presently higher than 29 of 144 games played this year. This total should be into the 170s unless there is serious rain.
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Same Game Multi
James Sicily has had 20+ disposals in every game this year. He’s an automatic inclusion in any Hawthorn same game multi.
Shannon Hurn has hit this mark in six straight while Jack Redden has in 14 of 15 games, only missing by two disposals last week.
Value Bet
Dylan Moore was injected into Hawthorn’s midfield last week, picking up 29 touches and attending over half of Hawthorn’s centre bounces for the first time in 2022. Expect him to be thrust back into the guts again this week off such a brilliant performance.
Blake Hardwick too had leather poisoning last week, racking up 32 touches – a career high. While this was the first time he’s had 20+ in 2022, he had 25+ twice in 2021 so he is certainly capable of picking up big numbers on his day.
