Sydney should be too strong for the Hawks.
Best Bet
Sydney -9.5 ($1.90)
Hawthorn boast a 3-2 win loss record but a look at some of the key stats suggests that their results are not sustainable.
They are ranked 16th for inside 50 differential, and 17th for clearance differential, so they are losing the midfield battle more often than not.
Hawthorn’s success – to this point of the season – has been based on ball movement and efficiency when inside 50. That’s going to be difficult to maintain in the absence of their best key forward, Mitch Lewis, who is out with injury this week.
The loss of ruckman Ned Reeves is a further concern for Hawthorn. Peter Ladhams dominated the ruck for the Swans last week.
Sydney’s strength has been retaining the ball through their short kicking game, denying the opposition possession. When they don’t have the ball, they are a ferocious tackling side, who put the opposition under huge pressure.
This match up looks an excellent one for the Swans and a line of under two goals looks well within their grasp.
Same Game Multi
Swans -9.5 / J. Newcombe, J.McInerney 20+ Disposals / J. Gunston 1+ Goals ($4.33)
Jai Newcombe has increased his centre bounce attendance from 50% to 75% in the last two weeks and his possessions have increased accordingly. McInerney is in outstanding form on the wing for the Swans while Gunston will be the clear focal point for the Hawks in Lewis’ absence.
Value Bet
Jack Gunston 3+ Goals ($3.80)
It’s generally the small and medium forwards doing the damage against the Swans this year. Brad Close, Jack Ziebell, Cody Weightman and Liam Ryan have all kicked three or more goals against them. Gunston will be the Hawks main avenue to goal with Lewis out.
