AFL Tips – Hawthorn v St Kilda – Round 4 2022

Both teams enter 2-1 but the Saints style is more sustainable.

Best Bet

St Kilda Win ($1.80)

St. Kilda produced a vastly improved performance last week against Richmond off the back of dominating clearances and that momentum can continue here with a win over the Hawks.

Hawthorn have started the season well with two wins and a loss by a sole point against Carlton, but some of the numbers are concerning. 

The Hawks have the lowest clearance differential in the league, and this is showing up in their inside 50 differential, which is the third lowest in the league, ahead of only the Roos and the Bombers.

The Saints trifecta of Jack Steele, Jade Gresham and Brad Crouch took over in the second half last week against Richmond and they look poised to feast again. 

Hawthorn has shown it is possible to win games despite losing these important metrics. But history shows it is difficult to sustain this. 

Back the Saints to get the win.

Same Game Multi

St Kilda H2H / Steele, Gresham, Crouch 25+ Disposals / Gunston 1+ Goal

Sticking with the Saints midfield trio to continue their big numbers and Gunston has just been superb so far this season.

Value Bet

Hawthorn / St. Kilda Half Time Full Time ($7.00)

Both teams have been slow starters this season but the Saints have been behind at quarter time and half time in all three of their games. They certainly have the capacity to hit the scoreboard hard in the second half as shown in the last two weeks.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.