In between two ripping derbies on Sunday sits this stinker between fourth-placed Hawthorn and 16th placed Richmond.
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Best Bet
This line looks a touch long with Hawthorn not firing on all cylinders in 2025.
Despite sitting 5-2 and inside the top four, the Hawks aren’t quite the product of last year. They’ve failed to cover the line in their last three games, including last week against a similarly poor team to Richmond in West Coast.
They’ve been particularly ordinary around the ball, sitting 11th for clearance differential and 10th for contested possession differential. Their opponents aren’t much chop in these numbers either, but you would be wanting a more dominant discrepancy around the pill to take an eight-goal line.
The Hawks’ defence will also be shaken up with Karl Amon and Jack Scrimshaw both missing through concussion. Noah Balta will be able to play for Richmond as he can get home before his curfew.
The Tigers have been reasonably competitive over the last month, beating the Suns and only suffering one defeat by a greater margin than this line. They’ve also been more competitive at the MCG, covering the line in the last three.
This is a rough betting game, but taking the Tigers to remain within this massive line looks the best play.
Same Game Multi
Jayden Short has had 25+ in four of his last five games.
Tom Lynch loves playing Hawthorn, averaging 3.4 goals per game in his last five.
Value Bet
Jack Gunston is in spectacular form, kicking 13 goals in his last three games. He also kicked five against the Tigers last year.
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