One of the AFL’s hottest teams hosts a Port Adelaide side at Marvel that looks every bit a bottom-four team at this stage of the season.
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Best Bet
The Hawks are the right side to be backing here and the line looks well within reach.
Aside from their Round 1 slip against GWS in Sydney, Hawthorn have beaten Essendon comfortably and accounted for three genuine finals teams in Sydney, Geelong and the Western Bulldogs. They have always been strong defensively but their offence has clicked in 2026, ranked #1 for converting possession into a score, and while their midfield looks light on paper, they sit third in the competition for clearance differential.
Port sit third last in that same stat and look a very ordinary team. They have faced a very modest group of teams so far in North Melbourne, Essendon, West Coast, Richmond and St Kilda, so a 2-3 record against that draw is not a great return. This is an enormous step up in class and they have failed to cover in five straight as an away underdog.
The Hawks lose Gunston and Chol, with Calsher Dear a handy replacement, while Port lose Jack Lukosius.
The talent gap is significant. Back Hawthorn to win big.
Same Game Multi
Port have yet to be tested against a good defence and could struggle to score here. Ten of Hawthorn’s last 11 home games have also gone under the total.
Connor Macdonald has had 20 or more disposals in every game this season. Jack Ginnivan has six goals in five games and loves playing the Power.
Value Bet
There is not a lot of standout value in this game but Ginnivan is coming off 28 touches and has had 19 or more in every game this year. Against a Port Adelaide side he has historically enjoyed playing, he could have another big one.
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