The Hawks and Power clash in what is expected to be a soggy Launceston on Saturday afternoon.
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Best Bet
With up to 15mm of rain expected to hit Launceston throughout the day on Saturday, the total is the focus here.
As we’ve discussed before, totals are rarely set low enough for wet-weather games. Since 2010, over 70% of rain-affected matches have gone under, with an average total of 138 points. This season’s 13 wet-weather games have averaged just 132.
Launceston games already lean under even before factoring in the rain. Over 58% of Hawthorn’s matches at the venue have gone under, including two of three this season. The only game that went over was Hawthorn’s demolition of North Melbourne, where they scored 150 points themselves. The other two games totalled just 140 and 91 points.
The rain should limit any chance of a blowout score here, so the under looks the best play.
Same Game Multi
Pretty rough game for player props with the rain likely to keep goals down and both teams lacking consistent disposal winners. Butters could also cop a tag from Maginness.
In a more contested game, Jai Newcombe will be good for his fourth straight 20+ disposal game, while James Worpel has had 20+ three straight in Launceston.
Connor Rozee’s absence should mean more touches for Kane Farrell. He’s had 20+ in three of his last four – and 19 in the other.
Value Bet
Aside from looking at some lower totals, Karl Amon is a worth a bet for another 30+ touch game after hitting that mark in two of his last three.
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