AFL Tips – Hawthorn v North Melbourne – Round 16 2025

The Hawks return off the bye to face the improving Kangaroos in Launceston on Saturday.

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Best Bet

Under 158.5 Points

Total Points

$1.90

There’s not much interest in this line with North playing much more competitive footy in recent weeks, but the under looks a good bet here.

Each of the Roos’ last seven games have gone under the total, with an average of 140 points. It’s coincided with a substantial improvement in their defence, with the Roos giving up just 73 points on average in their past seven, compared with 116 per game in the six games prior.

Hawthorn games have also been low-scoring, with six of their last seven going under, and especially at Launceston, where 10 of their last 12 have gone under. The average total in those games has been just 141 points.

The Hawks demolished the Roos 170-46 in the corresponding fixture last year, but there’s no doubt that Alastair Clarkson’s team have improved significantly since.

Back them to keep this tight.

Same Game Multi

Under 158.5 Points, C.McKercher 25+ Disposals, J.Ward 20+ Disposals, J.Ginnivan Anytime Goal

$5.75

Colby McKercher continues to rack them up across half back. He’s had 35, 27 and 29 in his last three.

Josh Ward has had 20+ in six straight.

North can struggle with small forwards and Jack Ginnivan has kicked 2+ goals in four straight against them.

Value Bet

Hawthorn 1-24

Margin

$3.60

The Roos have only lost one game by more than 24 points since Round 6, and that came against Collingwood after leading the flag favourites at three quarter time.

With a low-scoring game expected, a narrow margin to the favourites looks a likely outcome.

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