Geelong are a horror match-up for Hawthorn and should run out comfortable winners on Easter Monday.
Best Bet
Geelong -16.5 ($1.90)
This game will be decided in the midfield where the Cats hold a huge advantage.
Geelong are the leading team for clearance differential in 2022, averaging eight more per game than their opposition. Hawthorn rank 17th in that number and last for centre bounce clearance differential.
The Hawks surprised some with their 2-2 start to 2022. But wins over the wooden spoon favourite in North Melbourne and the hapless Port Adelaide are hardly impressive in hindsight. Suspect their 69-point belting from an in-form Saints team in Round 4 is a far more accurate indicator of where Hawthorn are at.
Sam Mitchell’s side are overly reliant on scoring from intercepts in their defensive 50. They’re ranked #2 for scoring from kick ins and #1 for points from defensive half chains. An experienced and well-drilled side like Geelong won’t let them get away with that.
The prospect of some rain will only make things more difficult for Hawthorn’s interceptors. Geelong are a brilliant wet weather side too, clearing in nine of their last 11 in the rain.
The Cats are a very confident bet.
Monday horse racing comes from Pakenham with a big six-event jumps program. Check out our expert racing tips for our top bets.
Same Game Multi
Geelong -16.5 / J.Selwood 20+ Disposals / T.Hawkins 3+ Goals ($3.75)
Chris Scott has shuffled his midfield around a lot this year leading to some wildly inconsistent individual disposal numbers. Joel Selwood has been the most reliable of Geelong’s mids, recording 20+ in each of his three games.
The ageless Tom Hawkins is showing no sign of slowing down, scoring 4.2, 1.2, 3.1 and 5.3 so far in 2022. He could kick another big bag here.
Value Bets
Geelong 40+ ($3.75)
The Cats are another step up in class from the St Kilda team that thumped the Hawks last week.
Geelong’s less conservative game plan has seen their average points scored per game rise from 83 in 2021 to 99 in 2022 – ranked 3rd. With Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron forward, they are certainly capable of putting on a big score, as they did in Round 1 when they smacked Essendon by 66 points.
The 40+ looks a great bet at $3.80 while 60+ at $9.50 is absolutely worth a throw.
D.Moore First Goalscorer ($17)
The young Hawk has remarkably kicked the first goal in three of his four games in 2022. A low confidence bet obviously, but a fun one for the thrill seekers.
