The traditional Easter Monday clash at the MCG should be a belter, with two genuine contenders in Hawthorn and Geelong facing off in what shapes as one of the best games of the weekend.
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Best Bet
It is surprising to see Geelong near double-digit outsiders given their recent record in this match-up. The Cats have won and covered the line in five straight against the Hawks and there doesn’t appear to be much between these sides.
The formlines of both sides are good without being great, each sitting at 2-1 after three games. Hawthorn lost to GWS in the opening round before bouncing back with wins over Sydney and Essendon. Geelong have beaten Fremantle and Adelaide, with their only loss coming against an unbeaten Gold Coast side.
Both sides are slightly undermanned in the midfield, strong defensively and carry broad attacking options. Geelong lose Patrick Dangerfield, but his influence has been overstated for some time now and the Cats have the depth to absorb his absence. The Hawks should be unchanged with their good injury list.
This game looks a genuine coin flip, so back the Cats with the start.
Same Game Multi
Josh Ward has had 26 and 27 disposals in his last two matches and is unlikely to attract tagging pressure from Mullin or O’Connor, making the 20+ line a good target.
Jack Martin has kicked four goals across his last two games while Shaun Mannagh has five in three this season. The Hawthorn key defenders are very strong so targeting the smalls makes sense instead.
Value Bet
Mannagh already has a bag of three this season and kicked 2.0 and then 3.2 in his last two games against Hawthorn. He is a big-game player who tends to lift in high-profile match-ups and at $6.00 the price is well worth taking.
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