Essendon are a bad football team and will struggle again this Saturday against Hawthorn.
Best Bet
Hawthorn -9.5 ($1.90)
The Bombers just cannot be trusted on current form.
Ben Rutten’s team have only covered the line once from seven games in 2022 – the worst in the AFL.
They are a dreadful contested team, losing the count by 11.9 per game – ranked 17th. Importantly against Hawthorn, they rank dead last for conceding inside 50s from their opponent’s defensive 50s – transition from defence is a real strength of the Hawks.
The Hawks have lost some of their early-season shine, but they have been solid during a brutal four-week run. They’ve beaten Geelong, remained competitive with Melbourne, played well for three quarters against Sydney and got smashed by St Kilda. This will be the first time in six weeks they’re not playing a top 8 team.
Essendon, meanwhile, have one four-point win to show from seven weeks of footy. They too have had a tough draw, playing five top 8 teams plus the Bulldogs, but have been far less competitive.
Hawthorn have won 5 of the last 6 against the Bombers at Marvel by an average of 53 points. They’ll be took good here again this week.
Same Game Multi
Hawthorn -9.5 / Tom Mitchell 30+ Disposals / Jack Gunston 2+ Goals / Peter Wright 2+ Goals ($6.00)
Tom Mitchell has his highest disposal average against Essendon, clearing 35 in 6 of 8 games.
Jack Gunston has kicked three goals in each of Hawthorn’s three wins this year.
Peter Wright is the most targeted forward line player in the AFL. He is averaging 2.4 goals a game in 2022.
Value Bet
Hawthorn 40+ Points ($4.70)
Essendon are a bad, bad football team and have suffered two 40+ point losses this year. Hawthorn are hardly an offensive juggernaut but have enough weapons to put a score on the Bombers.
