Old rivals meet at the MCG on Saturday afternoon with Essendon coming off a rare win, but the total is the standout play as long as the weather cooperates.
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Best Bet
As long as the forecast showers stay away, the over is a terrific bet here.
The Bureau is forecasting just 1-4 millimetres for the morning and afternoon. With this game a twilight start, the worst of the weather should have passed by bounce time.
These teams have an extraordinary record of high-scoring games, with 11 of 13 going over at an average of 187.2 points. The last five have averaged 198.4. With scoring also up eight points league-wide this year, it is a remarkable trend to oppose.
Hawthorn have averaged 109 points against bottom-six teams this year and put on 122 against Richmond last week. Essendon have not been scoring much but managed 67 points against GWS last week, their best return in six weeks.
Keep an eye on the radar, but as long as the rain clears the over is a great play.
Same Game Multi
Hawthorn are coming off wins of 64 and 70 points, so a 40-point margin should be an easy SGM booster here.
Nick Watson will be licking his lips against the worst team at defending small forwards in the competition, having kicked seven in his last two against Essendon. Jack Ginnivan is another who should hit the scoreboard.
Value Bet
Ginnivan was rested in the second half against Richmond last week, playing just 41 per cent game time. Fresh legs against the best match-up for small forwards in the competition and two or more in three previous games makes $3.30 a nice price.
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End