AFL Tips – Hawthorn v Collingwood – Round 22 2025

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Best Bet

Hawthorn +8.5

Line

$1.90

The Hawks have dominated this match-up for years, and that makes them the bet here.

Hawthorn have won and covered the line in 15 of their last 20 meetings with Collingwood, including five of the last six.

One of those defeats did come in Round 12, when the Magpies ran out 51-point winners. However, Craig McRae’s side are not travelling as well now, having lost three of their last four and failing to cover the line in any of those games.

A number of key players who were in strong form earlier in the season have dropped off dramatically, including Steele Sidebottom, Jack Crisp and Darcy Moore. Nick Daicos remains in sublime touch, but he averages fewer disposals against Hawthorn than any other team.

Collingwood have also struggled to contain key forwards, with Patrick Voss and Logan Morris each kicking bags of six in the last three weeks. That could be a major issue again this week, especially with the Hawks set to roll out four tall forwards again. Billy Frampton and Jeremy Howe return to bolster the defence.

Since that loss to Collingwood in late May, the Hawks have dropped just two games – one to Fremantle by 13 points in Perth, and the other to Adelaide in a high-quality contest last week. They’ve also covered the line in 14 of their last 17 home games and in four straight as a home underdog.

Take the Hawks to keep this close.

Same Game Multi

Hawthorn +8.5, J.Daicos 25+ Disposals, J.Ward 20+ Disposals, J.Ginnivan Anytime Goal

$5.00

Expect Josh Ward to take a good chunk of Will Day’s midfield minutes. Josh Worpel was awful coming on as sub last week so could reprise that role.

Josh Daicos has had 25+ in nine of ten at the MCG, and 24 in the other.

Jack Ginnivan has kicked a goal in nine of his last ten.

Value Bet

Calsher Dear

3+ Goals

$6.00

Dear looks the best value to cash in if the Pies again struggle with the key forwards. Mitch Lewis is yet to do much damage since returning, kicking five goals in four games, while Dear has kicked seven in his last four.

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