The Pies premiership defence is hanging on by a thread and they are in desperate need of a win over the Hawks at the MCG on Sunday.
Best Bet
Hawthorn have played the Pies very well in recent seasons despite being at opposite ends of the ladder, and the in-form Hawks can get another win here.
The Pies defence has fallen off a cliff since the bye, allowing 101, 92 and 91 points in the last three weeks. Worst of all that has been despite poor kicking, with their opposition racking up 14.17, 13.14 and 13.13 in those games.
Collingwood was beaten in every aspect of the game by Geelong last week, with the Cats – not a renowned powerhouse in this aspect of the game – winning clearances and dominating inside 50s.
Hawthorn were also well beaten by Geelong, but that came at Kardinia Park where they simply struggled to move the ball from end to end on the narrow ground. They were back to their best against Freo last week, and the Hawks have now won six of their last seven.
The Hawks have won five of their last eight against the Pies and while they did lose earlier this season, the margin was only 5 points. They caused a huge upset in Round 21 last year.
Hawthorn are the play in this one.
Insights
🏟️ Collingwood at MCG: Collingwood has struggled at the MCG, with only 1 win in the last 4 games and 3 wins in the last 9 games.
🌟 Hawthorn as Favourites: Hawthorn has excelled as favourites, winning 7 out of the last 8 games and achieving big wins (40+ points) in 6 out of those 8 games.
🤝 Hawthorn vs Collingwood: Hawthorn has dominated Collingwood in recent matchups, winning 11 out of the last 15 games and covering the spread in 7 out of the last 8 games.
Same Game Multi
Will Day wasn’t in the side when these teams last meet but has been a revelation since coming into the side. The Pies haven’t employed a tagger of late.
Karl Amon had 28 when these sides last met.
Josh Daicos dried up in the second half last week but generally does his best work on the wide open spaces of the MCG.
Value Bet
When Josh Daicos has a big game it is invariably on the MCG and he had 30 when these sides met at the home of football earlier this year.
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