AFL Tips – Hawthorn v Collingwood – Round 12 2022

Expect a shootout on Sunday at the MCG.

Best Bet

Over 168.5
Total Points

Backing the overs in Hawthorn games has been a brilliant play all season and that should continue against Collingwood this week.

Hawks games have gone over the total in 9 of 11 times this season, one more than any other team. Their games rank second for total points at 181 per game.

Collingwood games trend toward the over as well. Their games are ranked seventh in total points at 172 per game.

Confidence levels only increase at the MCG. Games at the home of footy go over at 58% this year and 9 of the last 10 Hawthorn or Collingwood games have cleared the total too at the venue.

While there is a risk of showers on Sunday, it doesn’t typically affect MCG games too badly unless there is significant rain. Keep an eye on the forecast closer to the game as a lower total may present.

Either way, expect another high scoring, free-flowing Hawthorn game on Sunday.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.


Same Game Multi

Over 168.5 Points, M.Lewis & O.Henry 2+ Goals, J.Sicily 20+ disposals

Mitch Lewis is having a terrific season for Hawthorn, averaging 2.9 goals per game across his eight matches.

Oliver Henry has scored 2+ goals in three of his last four games. He kicked 0.3 in the other.

James Sicily has had 20+ disposals in every game this year. He’s taken the most kickouts for Hawthorn this year and plays on 93% of the time so he can rack up plenty of cheap touches.


Value Bet

Hawthorn +11.5 / Over 168.5 Points
Double

Hawthorn have a terrific record over Collingwood, winning 13 of the last 15 head-to-head and covering the line in 11 of the last 15.

The Pies have been the worst team to back as favourites over the last two seasons, only covering in 2 of their last 12.

In what shapes as a very even contest, the Hawks look good value as outsiders.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.