AFL Tips – Hawthorn v Carlton – Round 20 2025

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Best Bet

Hawthorn -26.5

Line

$1.90

Carlton have been horrendous against quality opposition and have to be opposed here.

From eight matches against top eight teams in 2025, the Blues have covered the line just once, losing by an average of 30 points. The margin from their last four has ballooned to 47 points.

Carlton are coming off their first win in six weeks — an eight-point victory over Melbourne — but it’s hardly a reason to celebrate. They lost contested possessions by 21 and inside 50s by eight, while expected scoring had them losing by 10 points. The Dees, as usual, were simply wasteful in front of goal.

Hawthorn are coming off a comfortable win over Port Adelaide in horrendous conditions in Launceston — their fifth win from their last six games. The numbers are incredibly strong for them here. They’ve covered in 11 straight following a home win, six of their last seven night games at the MCG and four of their last five Thursday matches.

The Hawks have also been ruthless against the bottom ten, covering in eight of ten games this season, including each of their last five.

With the Blues failing to cover in 13 of their last 15 night games, expect a big Hawthorn win to open Round 20.

Same Game Multi

Hawthorn -26.5, J.Gunston & N.Watson 2+ goals, J.Worpel 20+ Disposals

$5.25

Gunston enjoys playing the Blues, booting 2+ in five straight against them. The Wizard also should take advantage of the Blues’ slow small backs. He’s kicked 2+ in seven of nine at the MCG.

James Worpel has had 20+ in seven straight against Carlton.

Value Bet

Jack Gunston

4+ Goals

$4.50

The veteran has had a magnificent season but he has done most of his damage against poor teams, with 31 of his 42 goals coming against the bottom nine. With Weitering likely to take Lewis, he could cash in with a favourable match-up.

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