It’s second against fourth at the MCG on Saturday with the Hawks facing off against the Lions, with each coming off defeats last week.
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Best Bet
The Lions are a fairly easy team to read at the moment. Fade them as favourites and back them as underdogs.
They have covered the line in just four of 14 games when favoured, but in 12 matches as outsiders since the start of 2023, they have covered 11 times and won nine. Four of those came at the MCG, where they’ve won three and covered in all four.
Hawthorn sit 7-3 this season but have enjoyed a soft draw. They’ve played only three games against top eight teams, equal fewest in the competition, and just one against a top four side.
The Hawks could struggle at stoppages in this one. They rank 15th for clearance differential in 2025, while the Lions sit third and remain one of the strongest midfield units despite inconsistent form.
Hawthorn have won the last five meetings but the Lions should keep this one close.
Same Game Multi
Backing in the Lions’ mids against the Hawks’ battling mids.
Will Ashcroft is racking up the touches lately, averaging 31.25 over the last month. Josh Dunkley has had 25+ in four straight against Hawthorn.
Jack Gunston is averaging nearly four goals per game over his last five.
Value Bet
As mentioned, the father-son gun has had 35, 34, 26 and 30 touches in his last four games. He could dine out here if the Lions’ mids can get on top.
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