The line looks far too small.
Best Bet
St Kilda -4.5 ($1.90)
The Saints have made a brilliant start to the season and look an outstanding bet to cover a very small line against an out of form opponent.
Their resurgence has been driven by and outstanding contested and clearance game as well as excellent conversion when inside forward 50.
St Kilda is ranking number one in the competition for goals from inside 50 entries, which is an ominous stat for the Giants as they are last in the league for conceding scores from opponent entries.
The Giants welcome back Toby Greene but they can take no solace from their ‘home’ record at Manuka Oval. They have lost their last three at the venue by an average of 43 points and failed to cover in six of their last seven.
GWS are simply a bad team. Their 1-4 record and percentage of 73 reflects this. Don’t expect this to be close.
Same Game Multi
St Kilda 25+ / T. Taranto 25+ Disposals / M. King 2+ Goals ($5.25)
Liking St. Kilda to win and win comfortably. Tim Taranto has been a bright spot for the Giants this season, averaging over 30 disposals a game, while King is probably the best key forward in the competition to this point of the season.
Value Bet
St. Kilda 40+ ($6.00)
GWS have been beaten by five goals or more in three of their five games. Against a Saints side that has the ability to pile on a score, it’s far from implausible that this ends up in a blowout.
