AFL Tips – GWS v Carlton – Round 9 2022

GWS are under the odds once again

Best Bet

Carlton +3.5 ($1.90)

It was extraordinary that the Giants started favourites against Geelong last week and they continue to be overrated by the market.

GWS are a bad team. They are moving on Leon Cameron for a reason. The return of Toby Greene has done little to improve their scoring woes. Since Round 5 the Giants have scored a goal from 17.9% of their inside 50s, the second worst rate in the league.

Carlton will miss Harry McKay but still have an in-form target in Charlie Curnow. The Giants have conceded plenty of goals to key forwards this season and Curnow should have plenty of chances once again.

This game is largely a battle of strength on strength, as they are both strong in contested footy and clearances. Carlton just do it better, and when they get the ball forward they are much more efficient at scoring.

Expect Cameron’s final game as coach to be a losing one.

Same Game Multi

Carlton +3.5 / C. Curnow 3+ Goals / J.Motlop 1+ Goals ($4.20)

Curnow should see plenty of targets in the absence of McKay and has been kicking plenty of goals this season anyway. Motlop, on debut, is a specialist forward who has kicked six goals from five appearances in the VFL this season.

Value Bet

Charlie Curnow 5+ Goals ($7.25)

With Phil Davis out through injury the Giants have conceded plenty of big bags to opposing key forwards this season. Curnow will should hit the scoreboard early and often in this one and the big odds for five are appealing.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.