The Dees host the resurgent Roos on Saturday night at the MCG as Simon Goodwin’s team attempt to get their season back on track.
Best Bet
North Melbourne were labelled “one of the best bets of the round” here last week and they may be an even better play this week.
The Roos have flipped their season on its head in the last two weeks, accounting for West Coast in Perth before losing a heartbreaker against Collingwood after leading by 54 points last Sunday.
It’s been built on improved competitiveness around the ball, ranking third behind Sydney and Fremantle for clearance differential over the last five games as their hugely-talented young midfield begin to click.
Melbourne’s game has long been built on contest, but alarmingly for Simon Goodwin’s team, their performance has fallen off a cliff, ranking 15th in clearance differential over the past five games.
Given the Dees are also ranked second-last for scores from turnover during the same period and dead last for overall points scored at a paltry 61 points per game, it’s difficult to see how they could beat any team by more than five goals at present, especially without Christian Petracca and Jake Lever.
With North covering the spread in three of their last four against Melbourne, they are a very confident bet.
Insights
🟥 Melbourne at MCG: In the last 8 games at the MCG, 7 games have gone under the total points line.
🦘 North Melbourne Off Loss: In the last 7 games off a loss, North Melbourne has covered the spread only once.
🦘 North Melbourne vs Melbourne: In the last 15 matchups, North Melbourne has won 9 times.
Same Game Multi
After a slow start to the year, LDU has exploded in recent weeks, averaging 31 touches over his last five.
Zac Fisher has had 30+ in four of his last five.
North had difficulty containing small forwards Bobby Hill and Lachie Schultz last week, who combined for nine goals. This could mean a big game for Kozzie Pickett, who has kicked eight goals in last three matches against the Roos.
Value Bet
The Roos’ final quarters have been their issue over the last two weeks, losing by 18 points against the Eagles and 32 against the Pies as the young side runs out of gas. Backing a three-quarter time North lead, therefore, looks a great play given our confidence in them to keep this competitive.
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