AFL Tips – GWS Giants v Sydney – Round 1 2022

These sides met three times last year and two of those games were decided by less than two points. Everything points to another classic Sydney Derby.

Best Bet

Over 154.5 Total Match Points ($1.90)

With two games decided by two points or fewer last year – including a heart stopping Elimination Final – it is no surprise to see this clash between the Swans and Giants the tightest betting affair of the round. 

The key absentee in this game is Giants co-captain Toby Greene. The Giants won two and lost three without him in the side last season, but it is worth noting the only game he missed against the Swans saw Sydney win by 26 points.

Despite that, the best bet here might be the over. Giants games went over at a rate of 62% last season, one of the highest in the league. 

With no AFL game having been placed at Accor for six years the teams may find it harder to establish their defensive structures at an unfamiliar venue. 

Any rain forecast is scheduled to have disappeared by the start of the game at 5:10pm and the tendency for Round 1 games to go over is a well established fact.

Same Game Multi

Over 154.5/Hayden McLean Anytime Goal Scorer/Jarrod Brander Anytime Goal Scorer ($4.92)

Brander will be starting deep in the Giants forward line in place of Jesse Hogan, while McLean is an emerging key forward/ruck who looks primed for a breakout year in 2022.

Value Bet

Lance Franklin 5+ Goals ($7.50)

Buddy is just five goals away from cracking the 1000. If he can get three or four, you can easily see his teammates feeding him the ball to try and put up four figures against their hated crosstown rivals, who Franklin famously spurned to join the Swans.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.