The Giants host the Power to close out AFL Round 14 with both teams desperate to prove their credentials against quality opposition.
Best Bet
We’re all in on Port Adelaide here largely due to one of the AFL’s more extraordinary statistics.
The Giants have been horrid at home against the AFL’s best, winning and covering in just one of their last eleven games against top eight teams in Western Sydney or Canberra.
It’s a shocking spot for Adam Kingsley’s side as they seek to get their year back on track. Following a 6-1 start to the season, they have now lost four of their last five games with only one cover.
Through that stretch they’ve been the fourth-worst team for scores from turnover differential which is a big red flag against the offensively geared Power.
Port have been typically hard to catch but they had won three of their last four prior to the bye, which itself has been a big advantage this season with teams off a break 8-2 against the spread.
With the Power also covering in eight of their last nine interstate following a loss, take them for the cover.
Insights
🔻 GWS Giants as Favourites: When favoured, GWS Giants have failed to secure a win in their last 3 games
🏆 Port Adelaide Off Loss: Port Adelaide have been impressive after a loss, winning all of their last 4 games in such situations.
🏟️ GWS Giants at Giants Stadium: Recent games at Giants Stadium have seen high scoring, with each of the last 4 games clearing the total
Same Game Multi
There’s little defence in Port Adelaide so Lachie Whitfield will be free to collect off half-back. He’s had 25+ in three straight and four of his last five against Port.
Jason Horne-Francis has seven goals in his last five games while Dan Houston has had 20+ in nine straight.
Big Ollie Lord hasn’t played this year after a promising 2023 campaign where he kicked 15 goals in 13 games including seven in his last three.
Value Bet
Four of the Giants’ five losses have come by more than 19 points in 2024 and Port are very capable of putting up a margin when they get on top.
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