North Melbourne drew the short straw to kick off 2024, with the perennial battlers travelling to Western Sydney to take on the Giants.
Best Bet
This has points written all over it, with forecast showers the only complicating factor.
North’s defence is comically inexperienced by AFL standards. Assuming neither Luke McDonald nor Aiden Corr play, the back six that played their last practice match (Pink, Dawson, Nyuen, McKercher, Goater and Sheezel) have played a total of 40 AFL games. Sheezel has 23 of them. Three have never played AFL.
To their credit, they only conceded 11.18 (84) to the Saints on a very windy day at Moorabbin but this is an entirely different challenge.
The Giants front six look terrifying, booting 114 points against the reigning premier in Opening Round, with their fourth-string key forward Callum Brown kicking five and Toby Greene just one.
Assuming GWS more than cover their end of the total, can North kick a big enough score to clear a big number?
Alastair Clarkson has already signalled his intent to move the ball with extreme pace and that style will get an early audit against the high-pressure Giants. The Roos scored 65 points against the Saints including a five goal burst in the third quarter.
GWS could easily kick 120-130 points of this total so the offensively-geared Roos should take care of the remainder.
Keep an eye on the forecast with showers expected, but rain-affected games in the opening month still average a reasonably high 156 points over the last decade, so it may not have a big impact.
Same Game Multi
Overs equals goals. Kicking off with Larkey who booted 20 in his last three last year and another three against St Kilda. He’ll get the tough match-up against Taylor but has kicked 2+ in 10 of his last 11 away games.
Toby Greene kicked just one last week but has kicked 2+ in four of his last five against North as has Jesse Hogan in 12 of his last 13 at home.
Throwing Cadman in for some value. The former number one pick kicked two last week and will get a very good match-up.
Value Bet
It’s hard to believe that Hogan is 29 years old but the former Demon and Docker looks finally ready to live up to his potential. He kicked four last week against Collingwood and 4+ in three of his last four at home. Should get plenty of opportunity.
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