AFL Tips – GWS Giants v Hawthorn – Round 16 2022

GWS vs Hawthorn - Expert AFL Tips

Torrential rain is set to cause mayhem in Sydney on Sunday.

Best Bet

Under 141.5 Points
Total

In ordinary circumstances, this would be the easiest overs tip of the season. GWS and Hawthorn games have gone over a combined 19 of 28 times in 2022.

But these are not ordinary circumstances.

A downpour of biblical proportions is set to hit Sydney this week, including up to 90mm on Sunday (Edit: Make that 150mm – Sydney’s average rainfall in July is 96mm). The under has to be the bet.

Games in wet weather go under at 72% over the last decade. The bookies never lower the totals enough.

The Giants’ electric ball movement and Hawthorn’s intercept game will both be crippled in these conditions.

Take the under and cheer on what should be a complete mess of a game.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.


Same Game Multi

GWS Win, Under 141.5 Points, T.Green & S.Coniglio 25+ Disposals

The Giants should have the edge in these conditions. They rank 8th for clearance differential while Hawthorn are dead last.

Tom Green is built for games like these. He’s had 30+ disposals in two of his last three games and is the Giants’ #1 contested possession player. Stephen Coniglio has had 25+ touches in each of his last five games.


Value Bet

Under 116.5 Points
Margin

Four games have fallen below 116 points in 2022. Two were played in torrential rain, another was played in diabolically humid conditions in Cairns. The fourth was when Port failed to kick a goal in the first half against Melbourne.

In extraordinary conditions, and extraordinarily low total is absolutely in play.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.