AFL Tips – GWS Giants v Hawthorn – Elimination Final 2025

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Best Bet

GWS Giants -2.5

Line

$1.90

This is a brutally tough final to call, but several key factors lean towards the home side.

The Hawks have an awful record in western Sydney, losing all eight visits to Engie Stadium and covering the line in just one of those games. Their average losing margin there is 27 points.

GWS have been strong at home, especially when their poor Canberra results are excluded. They’ve won seven of eight at Engie this season and covered in three of their last four.

The Giants also boast the AFL’s best record against elite opposition in 2025, winning six of nine against top-eight teams. Hawthorn, by comparison, are just 3-7 in the same match-ups.

Finals experience also favours GWS, who have 196 games under their belt compared to 119 for the Hawks.

Both sides get key players back, but the Giants’ inclusions are more significant, with Jesse Hogan, Josh Kelly and Jake Stringer returning. Josh Weddle is back for the Hawks.

In what shapes as a genuine toss-up, lean to the home side to keep their season alive.

Same Game Multi

GWS H2H, L.Whitfield 25+ Disposals, J.Impey & J.Newcombe 20+ Disposals, J.Ward 15+ Disposals

TBC

Lachie Whitfield has had 27+ touches in seven straight.

Jarman Impey has had 20+ touches in eight straight games, while Jai Newcombe has had the same in five of six against GWS.

Josh Ward has had 15+ in 21 of 22 and is getting more midfield time with Will Day out.

Value Bet

J.Stringer

3+ Goals

TBC

Jake Stringer’s form prior to his injury was superb, booting 3+ in four of his previous five games. He’s also kicked two bags of four in his last three against the Hawks.

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