The reigning premiers enter as outsiders in Sydney on Saturday night against a Giants team looking for revenge following a heart-breaking preliminary final loss.
Best Bet
Collingwood have been the kings of the close finish for two years under Craig McRae and have to be given the edge in a match the market expects to be a tight battle.
In an extraordinary run that has defied all luck and logic, the Pies have now won 17 of their last 21 games decided by 10 points or fewer including four of five interstate. When they’ve been outsiders in games decided by single digits, they are a perfect eight from eight against the spread.
The reigning premiers will be without two important defensive pieces in Nathan Murphy and Jeremy Howe so they will need to be careful not to let Jesse Hogan and Jake Riccardi off the chain, with both impressing in the pre-season. But crucially, Brayden Maynard has managed to contain Toby Greene to just three goals in their last two meetings.
The Giants weren’t a great bet in western Sydney last year, only covering in three of eight against 12 of 18 on the road.
And while they looked extremely sharp in their 44-point win over the Suns in their final practice match, the Magpies are three-for-three in this match-up under McRae, so we’ll take them with a goal start in what should be a brilliant contest.
Same Game Multi
Expect Tom Green to be a bonafide Brownlow chance this season after racking up 30+ touches in six of his last seven matches in 2023 including the prelim against Collingwood.
Lachie Whitfield had 25+ in his last six games last season and 15 from just 50% time on ground in the Giants’ last practice match.
Bobby Hill is fresh off a Norm Smith Medal in the Grand Final and kicked at least a goal in his last eight games last year.
Value Bet
This was a regular bet for us last year and for good reason, with eight of Collingwood’s 21 wins coming by ten points or less. Great value in what should be a nail-biter.
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