A big game for Gold Coast’s wildcard hopes at People First Stadium on Sunday afternoon, but the threat of heavy rain makes the total the strongest angle regardless of which way it falls.
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Best Bet
A very tough game to pick between two mid-table sides, and the strongest play is to follow the weather.
The Bureau is forecasting between 5 and 20 millimetres of rain on Sunday on the Gold Coast. If it hits, the under is the obvious play. Since 2010, 70 per cent of wet weather games have gone under the total and Queensland rain can arrive hard and fast when it comes.
If the rain stays away, the over becomes the compelling play. The last six games between these sides have all gone over the total and the seven games on the Gold Coast this year have averaged 195 points. The best strategy here is to check the forecast on Sunday afternoon and adjust accordingly.
We’ll sit on the fence and go with the under assuming the forecast is correct.
Same Game Multi
Pair the weather-dependent total leg with the over or under depending on Sunday’s forecast.
Gold Coast’s midfield has struggled to defend all year and in a crunch game expect Bontempelli to go large. The Suns do not defend well and he should have plenty of the ball.
Bailey Dale’s absence leaves a massive hole in the Dogs’ back six. He has taken 140 kick-ins for the Dogs this year, with the next highest a distant 32. Lachie Bramble steps into that role and Nick Coffield should also benefit from the extra distribution work.
Value Bet
With Dale out, there is a flood of kick-in disposals up for grabs and Bramble is next in line. Bailey Dale has had 130 kick ins this season, more than 100 more than any other Bulldog. He hasn’t hit 25 this season but has done so seven times in his 94-game career and the opportunity has never been greater.
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