AFL Tips – Gold Coast v Melbourne – Round 2 2022

The reigning premiers present a vastly different challenge than an understrength West Coast side.

Best Bet

Gold Coast Team Total Under 66.5 ($1.85)

Night games at Metricon Stadium have a strong tendency to go under the number and that angle looks very much in play here – for the home side. 

The Suns ran over the top of a depleted West Coast Eagles team in Round 1 but the reigning premier poses a different challenge altogether. 

Melbourne actually got handily beaten out of the middle in the season opener but the defence in particular held strong, keeping the Dogs to just 16 scoring shots from 51 inside 50s. 

The other factor leaning towards the Dees is the break in between games. Gold Coast back up just six days after their Round 1 games, including flights to Perth and back, while the Demons will be refreshed having opened the season on a Wednesday. 

Last time these two teams played it was a 98 point win to Melbourne and had they kicked straight – they finished with 18.20 – it could have been very ugly. 

Given the history of the unders at this ground the best play here is the Suns staying under their team total of 66.5.

Same Game Multi

Melbourne H2H / Under 156.5 Points / Jack Viney 20+ Disposals / Jake Bowey 20+ Disposals ($6.50)

Viney has only had fewer than 20 once in his career against the Suns, while Bowey should fill the back half distributor role in the absence of Christian Salem and his numbers can improve drastically.

Value Bet

Luke Jackson 3+ Goals ($15)

“Dogga” had the best game of his career against the Suns last year, bagging four, with Max Gawn kicking another two. With Tom McDonald playing in defence, Jackson should see some time close to goal.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.