AFL Tips – Gold Coast v Melbourne – Round 16 2025

Sitting outside the top eight for the first time in 2025, the Suns are in need of a win against Melbourne on Saturday.

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Best Bet

Gold Coast -18.5

Line

$1.90

The Suns have hit a flat spot but this looks a great opportunity to get back on the winner’s list.

Gold Coast thumped Melbourne by 58 points at the MCG back in Round 3, breaking a run of 12 straight losses to the Demons. They dominated Melbourne all over the park, nearly doubling them in clearances (40-24), and smashing them in inside 50s (+25) and contested possessions (+18).

The Suns have lost three straight but each against top eight sides in Geelong, Fremantle and GWS, who they also have a horrible record against, but their record at home and against poor opposition remains strong. They have covered the line in 12 straight as a home favourite after a loss and 11 of 15 against bottom ten teams.

Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin has lost patience with his squad after losing their last three, dropping Jake Lever, Caleb Windsor and Jacob van Rooyen, which reeks of desperation after a disappointing year.

Damien Hardwick’s team have slipped out of the eight for the first time this season and have too much to play for to drop this one. Expect the home side to win this comfortably.

Same Game Multi

Suns -18.5, M.Rowell 25+ Disposals, M.Gawn 20+ Disposals, b.King 2+ Goals Anytime Goal

TBC

Matt Rowell has only hit 25 in three of five but he had 24 in the other two where he missed this mark. He had 36 against the Dees earlier in the year.

Max Gawn has had 20+ in nine of his last 10, and 19 in the other.

Ben King has kicked 2+ in three straight against the Dees, including four in his last match against them.

Value Bet

Noah Anderson

35+ Disposals

$4.20

Some big prices about for the Suns skipper to have 35 touches, a mark he’s hit in four straight games when his side are favourites. The Dees do employ a tagger periodically so keep an ear out for any hints from the Melbourne brains trust around that.

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