AFL Tips – Gold Coast v Hawthorn – Round 11 2022

Expect a high scoring clash in Darwin

Best Bet

Over 162.5
Total Match Points

Games in Darwin do not have a strong record of going under that a tropical climate may suggest.

Leaving out 2020, Darwin games have gone under six of ten times with an average total score of 150. Some very bad Melbourne Demons teams played in those games.

The forecast for Saturday is for clear weather and it should still be very warm come the bounce. Given that, the over looks an excellent play.

Hawthorn are scoring plenty and conceding plenty under new coach Sam Mitchell, and they’ve gone over the number in eight of ten games this season.

Gold Coast are 50/50, but there is a wet game against Freo in there. They are coming off a shoot out against the Dogs in Ballarat, of all places.

We don’t have detailed hot weather stats but as a rule, more heat means more fatigue, which means more scoring.

The number here is low given how these sides play and the likely conditions.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.

Same Game Multi

Over 162.5, T. Miller, S. Mitchell 30+ Disposals

These two sides rank 15th and 16th for disposal differential. Backing Touk Miller to bounce back to his brilliant best here, he had 37 when these sides met last year. O’Meara missing should mean more midfield time for Mitchell who had 36 last week.

Value Bet

Touk Miller
35+ Disposals

Miller simply doesn’t play two bad games in a row. 40 or more at $8.00 worth a nibble as well.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.