The under looks a terrific bet on Sunday with rain set to cause havoc on the Gold Coast.
Best Bet
Under 146.5 Points ($1.90)
As it stands, this is the lowest total of any game in 2022. It’s still too high.
Fremantle are the AFL’s best defence, conceding just 57 points per game in 2022. Last week they gave up a ludicrous 24 points against North. Justin Longmuir’s team is putting together one of the stingiest defensive seasons this century, up with some of Paul Roos or Ross Lyon’s best years (only far less boring).
Freo’s last seven matches have all gone under the total, as have four of Gold Coast’s last six.
What really pushes the confidence levels on this bet is the weather forecast. South East Queensland is in for a drenching over the weekend, including up to 20mm of rain on Sunday.
This will seriously impact the Suns ability to score, given their reliance on marking forwards. Levi Casbault (18) and Mabior Chol (15) are the only two Suns players to kick more than ten goals in 2022.
Rain-affected games are always a great opportunity to back the under with 71% of wet weather games falling short over the last decade.
It would not surprise to see the Suns struggle to break 50 points on Sunday, and with Freo only ranked eighth for points scored at 88 points a game, it’s hard to see these two teams clearing the total.
Same Game Multi
Under 146.5 Points / Fremantle H2H / Caleb Sarong & Noah Anderson 25+ Disposals ($6.75)
Freo look every bit a top four team in 2022 and should have no trouble containing the Suns here.
Caleb Sarong has cleared 25 disposals in each of his last four games and remains a great price to do so again here.
Noah Anderson returns from a week off and he too has had 25+ touches in four straight games.
Value Bet
Gold Coast Under 50.5 Total Points ($4.30)
How low could Gold Coast go against the competition’s best defence? If the worst of the rain hits during this match, taking the Suns to score less than a half-ton looks terrific value. They scored 49 points last time out against Fremantle.
