AFL Tips – Gold Coast v Essendon – Round 24 2025

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Best Bet

Gold Coast -49.5

Line

$1.90

This is a strange set-up for the final game of the season.

The Suns need a win to qualify for finals. If they win by more than roughly 30 points, they will face Fremantle in Perth. If the margin is smaller, they will head to Sydney to play GWS.

Gold Coast come off a five-day break and a poor showing against Port, their second straight heavy defeat after being smashed by the Giants the week before.

Essendon get an extra day of rest but will field what is essentially a VFL-standard side that has lost 12 straight games. They regain Sam Durham and Jayden Laverde, while the Suns bring back Daniel Rioli and Bailey Humphrey.

Essendon’s record against top nine teams is horrible, going 0-11 this year with only two covers and an average losing margin of 46 points. Since their injury crisis mid-season, that margin has blown out to 62.

Gold Coast have handled bad teams well, covering in seven of 11 against bottom nine sides. They have also covered in 12 of 13 as a home favourite after a loss, while the Bombers have failed to cover in four straight at People First Stadium.

They rely heavily on winning the contest battle, which they have been poor in over the last fortnight. Fortunately, the Bombers are the second-worst clearance differential side over the ten weeks, so the home side should dominate around the ball.

There is no incentive for the Suns to manage the margin, as they have beaten GWS just once in their last 16 meetings. A Fremantle match-up would actually suit them better.

Expect Damien Hardwick to have the Suns fired up, while the Bombers may already be thinking about a night out on the Gold Coast, especially if things turn bad early.

Back the home side to pile on a big margin.

Same Game Multi

Gold Coast -49.5, N.Anderson 30+ Disposals, M.Rowell 25+ Disposals, M.Redman 20+ Disposals, B.Long 2+ Goals

$4.60

The Bombers don’t tag so expect Rowell and Anderson to respond following their poor showing against Port last week.

Mason Redman has been doing a ton of work in defence, racking up 70 touches in his last two games.

Ben Long has kicked 2+ in five straight.

Value Bet

B.Humphrey

3+ Goals

$4.00

Humphrey was in good goal-kicking form prior to his injury, booting three in two of his last three matches. If the Suns pile on a big score, you can be sure he’ll be in the goals.

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