AFL Tips – Gold Coast v Brisbane Lions – Round 20 2025

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Best Bet

Brisbane -7.5

Line

$1.90

The Lions have dominated their younger siblings in recent times.

The reigning premiers have won 12 of their last 13 against the Suns, covering the line in 10 of their past 12 with an average winning margin of 46 points. Their smallest winning margin since 2019 is 17 points.

Brisbane have been ruthless over the past month, winning all four games by an average of 29 points. They controlled most of the game against the Dogs last week before a late surge from the visitors trimmed the final margin to 10.

The Suns were dismal last week against Adelaide, failing to kick a goal in the first half and eventually losing by 61 points. Daniel Rioli joins Touk Miller on the sidelines this week, although Sam Collins could return to bolster the defence.

Rain could be a factor, with up to 15mm forecast for the afternoon and evening. If it arrives, the Lions’ hardened midfield should have the edge, especially with Miller out and Dunkley capable of clamping either Anderson or Rowell if needed.

The Lions’ record in the derby is too strong to ignore. Back them to win comfortably.

Same Game Multi

Sydney +9.5, Under 165.5 Points, L.Neale 25+ Disposals, J.Dunkley 20+ Disposals

$4.20

With rain predicted, we’ll look to the inside mids for our same game multi.

Lachie Neale has had 25+ in four of his last five against the Suns, while Josh Dunkley has had 25+ in five straight against the Suns.

With 70% of wet weather games going under since 2010, we’ll take an alternate line to boost our odds.

Value Bet

W.Ashcroft & L.Ashcroft

Anytime Goal

$6.50

The Ashcroft brothers have been deadly around goal lately, especially from forward line stoppages, each kicking a goal in their last four games. If this game becomes more stoppage heavy, then they’ll each have plenty of opportunity to hit the scoreboard again.

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